A self-controlled case series study to measure the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection associated with attendance at sporting and cultural events: the UK Events Research Programme events.

BACKGROUND: In 2021, whilst societies were emerging from major social restrictions during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, the UK government instigated an Events Research Programme to examine the risk of COVID-19 transmission from attendance at cultural events and explore ways to enable people to attend a range of events whilst minimising risk of transmission. We aimed to measure any impact on risk of COVID-19 transmission from attendance at events held at or close to commercially viable capacity using routinely collected data. METHODS: Data were obtained on attendees at Phase 3 Events Research Programme events, for which some infection risk mitigation measures were in place (i.e. evidence of vaccination or a negative lateral flow test). Attendance data were linked with COVID-19 test result data from the UK Test and Trace system. Using a self-controlled case series design, we measured the within person incidence rate ratio for testing positive for COVID-19, comparing the rate in days 3 to 9 following event attendance (high risk period) with days 1 and 2 and 10-16 (baseline period). Rate ratios were adjusted for estimates of underlying regional COVID-19 prevalence to account for population level fluctuations in infection risk, and events were grouped into broadly similar types. RESULTS: From attendance data available for 188,851 attendees, 3357 people tested positive for COVID-19 during the observation period. After accounting for total testing trends over the period, incidence rate ratios and 95% confidence intervals for positive tests were 1.16 (0.53-2.57) for indoor seated events, 1.12 (0.95-1.30) for mainly outdoor seated events, 0.65 (0.51-0.83) for mainly outdoor partially seated events, and 1.70 (1.52-1.89) for mainly outdoor unseated multi-day events. CONCLUSIONS: For the majority of event types studied in the third phase of the UK Events Research Programme, we found no evidence of an increased risk of COVID-19 transmission associated with event attendance. However, we found a 70% increased risk of infection associated with attendance at mainly outdoor unseated multi-day events. We have also demonstrated a novel use for self-controlled case series methodology in monitoring infection risk associated with event attendance.

Snakebite prevalence and risk factors in a nomadic population in Samburu County, Kenya: A community-based survey.

INTRODUCTION: Snakebite is an important public health concern, especially in tropical areas, but the true burden remains unclear due to sub-optimal reporting and over-reliance on health facility-based data. METHODS: A community-based cross-sectional survey was conducted in Samburu County, Kenya from December 2019 to March 2020. Geospatial techniques were used to create a sampling frame of all households in Samburu County and a multistage cluster sampling strategy to select households and recruit study participants. Five year prevalence and mortality rates were estimated, the characteristics and circumstances of snakebite were described, and multilevel logistic regression models were built to identify independent risk factors for snakebite. RESULTS: We recruited 3,610 individuals living in 875 households from 30 clusters. The 5-year prevalence of snakebite was 2.2% (95% CI 1.4%-3.4%), and the 5-year mortality rate was 138 (95% CI 44-322) deaths per 100,000 inhabitants, resulting in an estimated 1,406 snakebites and 88 deaths from snakebites per year in Samburu County. Snakebite incidents often occurred at night between 9pm and 6 am (44%, n = 36), and the participants were mostly walking/playing outdoors (51%, n = 41) or sleeping (32%, n = 27) when they were bitten. Lower household socioeconomic status and smaller numbers of people per house were significant independent risk factors. CONCLUSION: Samburu County has a high snakebite burden and the most victims are bitten while sleeping or walking outdoors at night. Snakebite prevention and health promotion programs in Samburu County, and other endemic regions, need to be contextualised and consider the geographic, seasonal, and temporal specificities found in our study. Our findings also have implications for health care delivery, especially identification of the need for night-time staffing with expertise in snakebite management and antivenom availability to better manage patients and thereby improve outcomes.

Conducting epidemiological studies on snakebite in nomadic populations: A methodological paper.

INTRODUCTION: Research on snakebite has mostly been conducted on settled populations and current risk factors and potential interventions are therefore most suited for these populations. There is limited epidemiological data on mobile and nomadic populations, who may have a higher risk of snakebite. METHODS AND RESULTS: We conducted a scoping review to gather evidence on survey methods used in nomadic populations and compared them with contemporary survey methods used for snakebite research. Only 16 (10.5%) of 154 articles reportedly conducted on pastoralist nomadic populations actually involved mobile pastoralists. All articles describing snakebite surveys (n = 18) used multistage cluster designs on population census sampling frames, which would not be appropriate for nomadic populations. We used geospatial techniques and open-source high-resolution satellite images to create a digital sampling frame of 50,707 households and used a multistage sampling strategy to survey nomadic and semi-nomadic populations in Samburu County, Kenya. From a sample of 900 geo-located households, we correctly identified and collected data from 573 (65.4%) households, of which 409 were in their original locations and 164 had moved within 5km of their original locations. We randomly sampled 302 (34.6%) households to replace completely abandoned and untraceable households. CONCLUSION: Highly mobile populations require specific considerations in selecting or creating sampling frames and sampling units for epidemiological research. Snakebite risk has a strong spatial component and using census-based sampling frames would be inappropriate in nomadic populations. We propose using open-source satellite imaging and geographic information systems to improve the conduct of epidemiological research in these populations.

Diagnostic characteristics of the 20-minute whole blood clotting test in detecting venom-induced consumptive coagulopathy following carpet viper envenoming.

INTRODUCTION: Envenoming by Echis spp. (carpet or saw-scaled vipers) causes haemorrhage and coagulopathy and represents a significant proportion of snakebites in the savannah regions of West Africa. Early diagnosis of envenoming is crucial in the management of these patients and there is limited evidence on the utility of the 20-minute whole blood clotting test (20WBCT) in diagnosing venom-induced consumptive coagulopathy (VICC) following envenoming by Echis ocellatus. METHODS: A prospective observational cohort study was conducted at the Kaltungo General Hospital in North-eastern Nigeria from September 2019 to September 2021. Standardised 20WBCTs were conducted by trained hospital staff and citrated plasma samples were collected at numerous timepoints. Prothrombin time (PT) and international normalised ratio (INR) were determined using a semi-automated analyser and INR values were calculated using international sensitivity indices (ISI). The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive values (PPV), negative predictive values (NPV), and likelihood ratios of the 20WBCT compared to an INR ≥ 1.4 were calculated, alongside 95% confidence intervals. RESULTS: We enrolled 121 patients into our study, with a median age of 26 (18.0-35.0) years and a male predominance (75.2%). The 20WBCT was positive (abnormal) in 101 out of 121 patients at timepoint 0h, of which 95 had an INR ≥ 1.4, giving a sensitivity of 87.2% (95%CI 79.4-92.8). Among patients with a negative 20WBCT (normal), six had an INR < 1.4 giving a specificity of 50% (95%CI 21.1-78.9). The positive and negative likelihood ratios were 1.7 (95%CI 1.6-1.9) and 0.3 (95%CI 0.1-0.4) respectively. CONCLUSION: The 20WBCT is a simple, cheap, and easily accessible bedside test with a high sensitivity for the detection of patients with venom induced consumptive coagulopathy (VICC) following envenoming by E. ocellatus, although false positives do occur. Repeated 20WBCTs can identify patients with new, persistent, and rebound coagulopathy.

"Then they prayed, they did nothing else, they just prayed for the boy and he was well": A qualitative investigation into the perceptions and behaviours surrounding snakebite and its management in rural communities of Kitui county, Kenya.

INTRODUCTION: Human-snake interactions are common in tropical regions where subsistence-farming and livestock-herding activities predominate alongside proliferation of snakes. Local beliefs and perceptions about snakes and snakebites influence human behaviour. Understanding these beliefs and perceptions can inform the development of resources to drive behaviour change and to minimise the risk of injury to both humans and snakes. This qualitative study, conducted between May and July 2019, sought to explore the beliefs and perceptions regarding snakes and snakebites, and methods of prevention and management among members of the community in Kitui County, Kenya. METHODS: Semi-structured interviews were used to collect qualitative data from 23 participants, recruited using a stratified purposeful sampling strategy in four selected sub-counties of Kitui county. Interview data was anonymised and coded and a thematic analysis was conducted using NVivo 12. RESULTS: People from Kitui county mostly had negative perceptions about snakes. There was a generalised awareness of the need to prevent snakebite, predominantly through keeping snakes away from homes/compounds. However, implementation was limited by financial constraints. Participants also identified logistic and financial obstacles to early hospital presentation following a snakebite, and they expressed a strong preference of having their snakebites treated in a hospital over consulting traditional healers. There was a universal recognition of the benefit of early intervention with a specific appreciation of the utility of the black stone. Furthermore, the removal of a snake's "teeth" was an expected treatment outcome for some community members, with the failure to do so perceived as causing poor wound healing or persistence of symptoms. Some religious groups held views which differed from most participants. CONCLUSION: There is a need to explore and clarify common misconceptions about snakes and first aid treatment of snakebites, encourage learning about the true nature of snakes, and highlight beneficial uses of snakes. A change in the epistemological conception of community education material by enhancing the value and use of local forms of knowledge, and the employment of art techniques to transmit this knowledge, could improve community perception and methods of snakebite prevention. Patient expectations should be appropriately managed by discussing possible outcomes, incorporating follow-up visits and addressing long-term complications of snakebites.

Public health impact of mass sporting and cultural events in a rising COVID-19 prevalence in England.

A subset of events within the UK Government Events Research Programme (ERP), developed to examine the risk of transmission of COVID-19 from attendance at events, was examined to explore the public health impact of holding mass sporting events. We used contact tracing data routinely collected through telephone interviews and online questionnaires, to describe the potential public health impact of the large sporting and cultural events on potential transmission and incidence of COVID-19. Data from the EURO 2020 matches hosted at Wembley identified very high numbers of individuals who tested positive for COVID-19 and were traced through NHS Test & Trace. This included both individuals who were potentially infectious (3036) and those who acquired their infection during the time of the Final (6376). This is in contrast with the All England Lawn Tennis Championships at Wimbledon, where there were similar number of spectators and venue capacity but there were lower total numbers of potentially infectious cases (299) and potentially acquired cases (582). While the infections associated with the EURO 2020 event may be attributed to a set of socio-cultural circumstances which are unlikely to be replicated for the forthcoming sporting season, other aspects may be important to consider including mitigations for spectators to consider such as face coverings when travelling to and from events, minimising crowding in poorly ventilated indoor spaces such as bars and pubs where people may congregate to watch events, and reducing the risk of aerosol exposure through requesting that individuals avoid shouting and chanting in large groups in enclosed spaces.

Delays, fears and training needs: Perspectives of health workers on clinical management of snakebite revealed by a qualitative study in Kitui County, Kenya.

Key aims of the WHO Strategy to halve snakebite morbidity and mortality include health system strengthening and training of health workers. This requires knowledge of local health system needs and capacity, health worker training needs, and factors influencing health worker decision-making in snakebite management. This study explored health worker experiences and perceptions of snakebite management, both individually and in the context of their local health system. We used a qualitative study design with semi-structured interviews (n = 14) and focus group discussions (n = 4). We employed a combination of sampling strategies aiming to achieve maximum variation among key informants within resource limitations. We recruited health workers (n = 33) of varying roles from purposively selected tier 2, 3 and 4 health facilities (n = 12) and the community (tier 1) in four sub-counties in Kitui County, Kenya. We conducted inductive thematic analysis of all transcripts. The results identified that health workers recognised snake envenoming as a time-critical emergency in which delay in care seeking, sometimes exacerbated by health system referral delays, was a major barrier to effective management of patients. Clinicians strongly voiced a need for training in snakebite management, diagnosis and antivenom administration. Unexpressed needs for training were demonstrated in traditional remedy ineffectiveness, syndromic management, and critical appraisal of treatment effectiveness. Under-resourcing in antivenom, other medication, equipment, infrastructure and staffing also challenged management. Fear of snakebite and fear of antivenom, both linked to past experiences, influenced clinical decision-making. Our findings clearly indicate a need in Kitui County for training programmes that equip health workers for clinical decision-making in snakebite management. We further identify community intervention needs to facilitate prompt presentation to healthcare, including practical affordable transport solutions, and systematic health system resourcing needs. In addition, we recommend supportive supervision and further research in response to the emotional stress resulting from managing difficult cases in under-resourced settings.

Livestock herding and Fulani ethnicity are a combined risk factor for development of early adverse reactions to antivenom treatment: Findings from a cross-sectional study in Nigeria.

BACKGROUND: Adverse reactions to antivenom considerably complicate the clinical management of snakebite envenomed patients because it necessitates a temporary suspension of life-saving antivenom, increases costs and can compromise patient outcomes. This study sought to explore the association between cattle-herding occupation and ethnic group and the occurrence of early adverse reactions to antivenom. METHODS: This cross-sectional study was conducted between the 25th April and 11th July 2011 at the Kaltungo General Hospital in north east Nigeria. The exposure variable of cattle-herding occupation showed a strong correlation with the ethnic group variable, thus these were combined into a new variable with three categories (Fulani and herder, either Fulani or herder, and neither Fulani nor herder). The outcome variable was the occurrence of early adverse reactions, defined as any new symptoms occurring within 6 hours of antivenom administration. Odds Ratios were estimated using multivariable logistic regression models controlling for potential confounders. RESULTS: Among 231 envenomed snakebite victims, the overall incidence of early adverse reactions was 11.9% (95% confidence intervals: 8.0-16.9%). Patients who were Fulani and herders had a higher incidence of early adverse reactions compared to patients who were neither Fulani nor herders (20% vs 5.7%). After adjusting for age and gender, victims who were Fulani and herders were 5.9 times more likely to have an early adverse reaction, compared to victims who were neither Fulani nor herders (95% CI: 1.88-18.59; p = 0.002). INTERPRETATION: To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to provide evidence of higher odds of early adverse reactions among patients from a particular occupation and/or ethnic group. We recommend that snake envenomed patients of Fulani origin be especially closely monitored for adverse reactions, that hospitals receiving these patients be appropriately resourced to manage both envenoming and adverse reactions and that premedication with adrenaline should be considered. Our findings provide an argument for speculation on the influence of immunological or lifestyle-related differences on the occurrence of early adverse reactions to antivenom.

Care of the elderly: survey of teaching in an aging sub-Saharan Africa.

In sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), a rapidly aging population is presenting challenges to health care systems. Doctors need specialized knowledge to be prepared for the increase in age-related medical conditions. This study aims to investigate the current provision of geriatrics education (GE) in SSA medical schools and discover some of the barriers faced in its implementation. Questionnaires were sent to a list of medical schools in SSA, supplied by the sub-Saharan African Medical Schools Study. Responses were received from 25/135 institutions (19%), representing 11 countries in SSA. Of these institutions, 4% taught geriatrics and 40% had no geriatrics teaching. The largest perceived barriers to GE were a lack of staff expertise (72%), lack of funding (52%), and absence of geriatrics in the national curricula (48%). There are still a large number of medical schools in SSA who do not teach geriatrics. Improvements in GE should be implemented through local approaches and national policy, while appreciating the cultural context and economic constraints of each country to prepare future doctors for the increasing challenges of an aging population.